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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Spain

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, May 20, 2005

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.3 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in March.

  • The leading index fell in March, but there were large upward revisions to the previous two months as the order books survey was revised up significantly. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has picked up to a 1.5 to 2.5 percent annual rate, up slightly from the second half of 2004, but still well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth through early 2004. The strengths and weaknesses in the components of the leading index have been almost equally balanced in recent months.
  • The coincident index increased for the fifth consecutive month in March, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. Real GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2004, and has been steadily growing at a 2.5-3.0 percent average rate for the last two years. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy will continue to expand at a moderate rate in the near term.

Leading Indicators.Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller—are the order books survey and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. Job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the Spanish equity price index declined in March.

With the decline of 0.3 percent in March, the leading index now stands at 137.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in February and increased 0.7 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 0.6 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction declined in March.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in March, the coincident index now stands at 148.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in February and increased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 1.5 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

DATA: The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) May 19, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.