Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, October 19, 2004

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.2 percent, and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in August.

  • The leading index fell slightly in August following a moderate gain in July, with the money supply and the survey of orders contributing to the decline. As a result, the leading index has been essentially flat in recent months compared to growth of 5.0-6.0 percent (annual rate) earlier this year. In addition, the flatness in recent months has included an equal mixture of strengths and weaknesses among the components.
  • The coincident index also declined in August, but it is still on a persistent upward trend, and real GDP increased at a 2.5 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004. The recent behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth will continue at or perhaps slightly below this sluggish rate for the remainder of 2004.

Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the order books survey, and the Spanish equity price index. Job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the capital equipment component of industrial production increased in August.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in August, the leading index now stands at 135.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in July and was unchanged in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.1 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction. The retail sales survey decreased in August.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 145.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in July and increased 0.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.6 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) October 15, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.


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