Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, September 21, 2004

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in July.

  • The leading index increased in July following no change and two small declines in the previous three months. July’s increase makes it clearer that the leading index is still rising, but its growth has slowed to a 1.0-2.0 percent annual rate from 5.0-6.0 percent through earlier this year.
  • The coincident index increased again in July, keeping it on a steadily rising trend. Correspondingly, real GDP increased at a 2.5 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004. The recent slower growth in the leading index suggests that the economy is likely to continue growing at about this sluggish rate for the remainder of 2004.

Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the order books survey, and the Spanish equity price index. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the capital equipment component of industrial production increased in July, while the inverted long-term government bond yield remained unchanged.

With the 0.4 percent increase in July, the leading index now stands at 136.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in June and decreased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.7 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction. The retail sales survey was unchanged in July.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 145.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in June and increased 0.1 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 2.0 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) September 16, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimates among the series in the leading index.