Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, May 18, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in March.
- The leading index increased again in March, continuing the steady growth that began a year ago. The leading index has increased at an average rate of about 4.5 percent over this period, and the strength has continued to be widespread. The coincident index has also been increasing steadily since the third quarter of 2003.
- Correspondingly, real GDP increased at a 2.8 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2003. The persistent strength in the leading index suggests that economic growth will continue at about this rate in the near term, with the possibility of some slight improvement.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The Spanish equity price index and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 declined in March.
With the 0.4 percent increase in March, the leading index now stands at 136.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in both February and January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 2.5 percent, and all six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction*, and real imports*. The retail sales survey remained unchanged in March.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in March, the coincident index now stands at 143.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in February and 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 1.6 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) May 14, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.