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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Spain

Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, March 18, 2004

The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Spain increased 0.4 percent in January.

  • The leading index increased for the tenth consecutive month in January. The leading index has now increased at almost a 5.0 percent annual rate from its most recent low in March 2003, and the strength continues to be widespread.
  • The coincident index has been volatile from month to month because of large fluctuations in the retail sales survey. Nonetheless, the coincident index continues on a moderately rising trend.
  • The leading index has been signaling an improvement in the rate of economic growth, and real GDP growth picked up to a 2.8 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2003. The more rapid growth of the leading index in recent months suggests further improvement in the rate of economic growth during the first half of 2004.

Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The order books survey and the capital equipment component of industrial production declined in January.

With the 0.4 percent increase in January, the leading index now stands at 135.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in December and increased 0.8 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 2.2 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in January. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 142.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both December and November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.5 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) March 17, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.