Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, February 20, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.4 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in December.
- The leading index continued increasing in December, the ninth consecutive gain. The leading index has now increased at a 4.5 percent annual rate since its most recent low in March 2003, and the strength continues to be widespread.
- December’s increase keeps the coincident index on the moderate upward trend underway since early 2002. (November’s previously reported small decline has been revised up to a small increase.) Recent month-to-month fluctuations in the coincident index have been mostly the result of volatility in the retail sales survey.
- As signaled by the pick up in the leading index since March, real GDP increased at almost a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2003. The more rapid growth of the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth is likely to strengthen further through the first half of 2004.
Leading Indicators. Five of the six components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are job placings, the Spanish equity price index, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the inverted long-term government bond yield. The order books survey declined in December.
With the 0.4 percent increase in December, the leading index now stands at 134.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 0.6 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.7 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, real imports*, industrial production excluding construction*, and the retail sales survey.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in December, the coincident index now stands at 141.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.1 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) February 18, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.