Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, December 18, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.6 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in October.
- October’s increase in the leading index, which follows no change for two months, keeps it on a moderately rising trend (a 3.0-4.0 percent annual rate). The coincident index also increased in October, maintaining the steady and moderate upward trend over the last year and a half.
- Despite the pause in the leading index in August and September, the recent strength in the leading index has become more widespread. Correspondingly, real GDP growth has picked up to almost a 3.0 percent annual rate over the last two quarters. The continued growth in the leading index suggests a slight improvement in the rate of economic growth going into 2004.
Leading Indicators. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the order books survey, the Spanish equity price index, job placings, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. The Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and the inverted long-term government bond yield declined in October.
With the 0.6 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 133.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in both September and August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.9 percent, and five of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 91.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction* declined in October.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 141.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in September and decreased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.1 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) December 17, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes:Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.