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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, November 20, 2003

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain declined 0.1 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in September.

  • The leading index declined slightly in September. This small decline, following no change in August, represents a pause in the leading index, which had increased significantly through July from a recent low in March.
  • The coincident index continued increasing in September, keeping it on a steady and moderate upward trend over the last year and a half.
  • In general, the leading index suggests a continuation of moderate economic growth. However, the pause in the leading index over the last two months suggests a more cautious interpretation of the upward trend in the leading index, and perhaps a lack of momentum going into 2004.

Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller—are job placings and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Four of the six components decreased in September. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, the inverted long-term government bond yield, and the order books survey.

With the 0.1 percent decline in September, the leading index now stands at 132.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in August and increased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.6 percent, and four of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, real imports*, and industrial production excluding construction*.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 141.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.4 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.9 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 18, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes:Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports.