Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, April 17, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 1.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in February.
- After declining for the last two months, the leading index jumped by 1.1 percent in February. The strength in the leading index has been widespread, as shown by the six-month diffusion index staying well above 50 percent.
- The coincident index, which measures current economic activity, continued its steady growth in February. The retail sales survey, after two consecutive declines, has been strong for the last two months.
- The strength of the leading index through late last year suggests the pace of economic activity in Spain is likely to pickup in the near term. However, the pause in the leading index that may have begun in December 2002 is a cause for some concern.
Leading Indicators. Six of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are the inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index, and the order books survey. The construction component of industrial production decreased in February.
With the increase of 1.1 percent in February, the leading index now stands at 155.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.7 percent in January and decreased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 4.0 percent, and five of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include final household consumption*, the retail sales survey, and real imports*. Industrial production excluding construction* declined in February.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in February, the coincident index now stands at 137.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and remained unchanged in December. During the six-month span through February, the index increased 1.4 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.