Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 16, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 1.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in November.
- With this month’s increase, the leading index is up nearly 4 percent in the last two months, and the trend in the index seems to picking up again after flattening over the past year.
- The sharp gain in the index was driven by very strong gains in the financial sector, as well as the construction component of industrial production and the order books survey. This strength in the index is becoming more widespread as indicated by the increase in the six-month diffusion index to over 80 percent in the last three months.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, gained moderately in November. Continued strength across all the coincident indicators has driven an upward trend in the coincident index for the fifth consecutive month.
Leading Indicators. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— include the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the construction component of industrial production, the Spanish equity price index. Three of the seven components that make up the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—include job placings, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and inverted long-term government bond yield. With the increase of 1.3 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 154.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 2.5 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 4.0 percent, and six of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.All four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction*, real imports*, and the retail sales survey.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 136.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.4 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) January 14, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption, industrial production excluding
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.