Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, November 15, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in September.
- This month’s decline in the leading index marks the first time in a year and half that the index has declined for three consecutive months. The growth in the index has significantly flattened since December 2000.
- The stock market, after a one-month increase in August, dropped sharply in September. This decline in the stock price index was the largest monthly decline since August 1998, and is the fourth decline in the last six months. Money supply as well as the order books survey also showed weakness in September.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, gained moderately in September. The slow yet steady growth in this index over the past year has been widespread across all its components as indicated by the strength in the six month diffusion index.
Leading Indicators. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— include inverted long-term government bond yield, job placings, the construction component of industrial production, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Three of the seven components of the leading index decreased in September. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest— include the Spanish equity price index, the order books survey, and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in September, the leading index now stands at 149.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in August and decreased 0.5 percent again in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.5 percent, and six of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include industrial production excluding construction, final household consumption*, and real imports*. The retail sales survey decreased in September.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 135.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.1 percent, and all four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) November 13, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimated series in the leading index this month.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.