Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - September 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, October 15, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain decreased 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in August.
- August marks the second consecutive monthly decline in the leading index for Spain. A sharp drop in the order books survey, along with deterioration in the construction sector and job placings, contributed to this month’s decline in the leading index.
- Despite the weakness in other sectors, financial indicators improved in August. The Spanish equity price index increased this month after a four-month consecutive decline. Money supply, as well as the government bond yield, also showed significant improvement in August.
- The coincident index continued to increase in August. Although the year over year growth rate in the coincident index is lower than in 2001, the coincident indicators show widespread strength, as the six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of components increasing, has been well above 50 percent.
Leading Indicators. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in August. The positive contributors—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— include inverted long-term government bond yield, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, the capital equipment component of industrial production, and the Spanish equity price index. Three of the seven components of the leading index decreased in August. The negative contributors—in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest— include the order books survey, the construction component of industrial production, and job placings.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in August, the leading index now stands at 149.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.7 percent in July and increased 1.5 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.0 percent, and two of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 35.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—include the retail sales survey, final household consumption*, industrial production excluding construction, and real imports*.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at 135.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in July and decreased 0.1 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 0.7 percent, and three of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) October 14, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports. There are no estimated series in the leading index this month.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.