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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, July 16, 2002

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Spain increased 0.9 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in May.

  • The leading index continued to grow in May. Despite the further decline in the stock market, a significant gain in the industrial orders as well as the capital equipment component of industrial production contributed to this month's gain in the leading index.
  • However, the leaving index is still 0.3 percent below its May 2001 level, and is 1.1 percent below its most recent peak reached in January 2001.
  • The coincident index gained moderately in May. Retail sales declined this month, after a sharp increase in April. Although the coincident index is now 1.1 percent above its May 2001 level, the pace of its growth is slower than it was in 2001.

Leading Indicators. Three of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors-in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- include the order books survey, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, and the capital equipment component of industrial production. Two of the seven components of the leading index decreased in May. The negative contributors to the index occurred in the Spanish equity price index and the construction component of industrial production. Inverted long-term government bond yield and job placings held steady in May.

With the increase of 0.9 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 149.2

(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in April and decreased 0.9 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 0.9 percent, and two of the seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 35.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors include final household consumption* and real imports*. The retail sales survey declined while industrial production excluding construction held steady in May.

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 6 P.M. (ET) July 14, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: There was no series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates. Series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include final household consumption and real imports.