Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 24, 2014
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.1 percent while The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in November.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell slightly again in November. Large declines in oil prices and net insufficient inventories more than offset positive contributions from the construction component of industrial production and stock prices. With this month’s decline, the leading economic index declined by 1.1 percent (about a -2.2 percent annual rate) between May and November 2013, reversing its gain of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators were balanced.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in November. During the six-month period ending November 2013, the coincident economic index grew 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the growth of 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 3.4 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, up from the contraction of 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2013.
- The LEI for Mexico declined slightly in November for the second consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly in November, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady throughout the year. Taken together, continued negative growth in the LEI in recent months suggests that the rate of economic activity is unlikely to accelerate in early 2014.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the industrial production construction component, stock prices, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and net insufficient inventories decreased in November. The (inverted) real exchange rate remained unchanged.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in November, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 123.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index decreased 1.1 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in November. The positive contributors — from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production declined in November.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in November, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 122.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 0.5 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.