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Benchmark Revisions - May 2008

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Released: Monday, June 24, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in April.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined in April for the first time this year, with the construction component of industrial production making the largest negative contribution. The leading economic index increased by 2.5 percent (about a 5.1 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending April 2013, up from the increase of 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.  
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, edged down in April. Between October 2012 and April 2013, the coincident economic index grew by 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate), much slower than the 1.7 percent increase (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2013.
  • The LEI for Mexico decreased in April. However, its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady and most of its components have been strengthening in recent months. Moreover, the CEI for Mexico has been flat since November 2012, partially reflecting earlier weakness in the LEI. Despite this month’s declines, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy will continue to expand and that its growth rate may even pick up in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — were the (inverted) real exchange rate and the (inverted) federal funds rate.  The industrial production construction component, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and stock prices decreased in April.

With the 0.7 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 126.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in March and increased 0.7 percent in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.5 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
One of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributor was number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Industrial production and retail sales declined in April.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 123.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and remained unchanged in February.  During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.2 percent, with one of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 20, 2013. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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