Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, August 24, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.0 percent while The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.5 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell again in June for the third consecutive month. Oil prices and the (inverted) real exchange rate continued to make large negative contributions to the index. During the first half of 2012, the leading economic index declined by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), slightly better than the decline of 0.7 percent (about a -1.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, but still a slowdown nonetheless. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been somewhat balanced in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased in June. Between December 2011 and June 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 2.3 percent (about a 4.6 percent annual rate), up from the increase of 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) during the second half of last year. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, down from the 4.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has been declining for the past three months, and as a result its six-month growth rate has turned negative for the first time since December of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June following two consecutive declines, and its six-month growth rate has picked up moderately from the second half of 2011. Despite the fairly steady growth in the coincident index this year, the recent declines in the leading index and its components suggest that the rate of economic expansion is likely to moderate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors to the index are stock prices and net insufficient inventories. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the industrial production construction component decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in June.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 119.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in May and declined 0.7 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index declined 0.1 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are retail sales, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and industrial production.
With the increase of 0.5 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 120.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 2.3 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 23, 2012. Some series are estimated as noted below.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.