Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, July 26, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) declined 0.3 percent in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell again in May for the third consecutive month. Real exchange rate, oil prices, and stock prices made the largest contributions to the decline in the index this month. Between November 2011 and May 2012, the leading economic index increased by 0.6 percent (about a 1.2 percent annual rate), up from a decline of 0.2 percent (about a -0.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. However, the six-month diffusion index has declined, indicating that the number of leading indicators rising has become smaller in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also declined in May. As a result, the six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index has slowed to 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate), down from the increase of 2.7 percent (about a 5.5 percent annual rate) for the previous six month. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, up from the 2.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has been falling for the past three months, and its six-month growth rate has moderated from earlier this year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico declined for the second consecutive month, and the six-month growth in the coincident index has slowed from the second half of 2011. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although economic expansion will continue, the rate of growth is likely to moderate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors to the index were net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component. The (inverted) real exchange rate, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and stock prices decreased in May, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.
With the 0.7 percent decrease in May, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 120.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in April and declined 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributor was number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). Retail sales and industrial production declined in May.
With the decrease of 0.3 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 119.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.6 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.2 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
*See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. July 24, 2012. There were no series that were based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.