Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, June 25, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) declined 0.1 percent in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell again in April, with real exchange rate, oil prices, and net insufficient inventories declining sharply. Despite the decline in April, the leading economic index increased by 2.4 percent (about a 4.9 percent annual rate) during the six-month period ending April 2012, up from a decline of 1.8 percent (about a -3.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also declined in April. Between October 2011 and April 2012, the coincident economic index increased by 2.2 percent (about 4.5 percent annual rate) — the same rate as for the previous six months. Overall, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 5.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, up from the 2.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in April for the second consecutive month, but its six-month growth rate remains higher than during the second half of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico declined slightly after rising in the first three months of the year, though its growth rate has remained steady. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current economic expansion is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Only one of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributor to the index was the industrial production construction component. The (inverted) real exchange rate, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and stock prices decreased in April. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.
With the 0.7 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 121.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in March and increased 1.0 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.4 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 91.7 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors were number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production declined in April.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 120.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in March and increased 0.9 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 2.2 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 20, 2012. There were no series that were based on The Conference Board estimates.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.