Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, February 15, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.5 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in December.
- The leading index increased in December, but the large gain in November was revised down to a slight decrease as a result of downward data revisions in the oil price index and net insufficient inventories components. Despite December's increase, the six-month change in the leading index is still -0.4 percent (a -0.7 percent annual rate), down from the rapid growth of about 6.0 to 7.0 percent annual rate in the middle of the year. However, most of the weakness in the last several months came from the oil prices and the inventory components, and the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators continued to be somewhat balanced.
- The coincident index was unchanged in December, and it is still on a flat to slightly rising trend with widespread strength among its components. At the same time, real GDP slowed to a 3.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2006, down from the 5.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of the year. Despite short-term volatility, the recent behavior in the leading index still suggests that economic growth is likely to continue, but it is likely to be at a slow to moderate pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors to the index — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the industrial production construction component*. Net insufficient inventories decreased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in December.
With the 0.5 percent increase in December, the leading index now stands at 160.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the index decreased 0.4 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributor occurred in the (inverted) unemployment rate. Number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries)*, industrial production, and retail sales* declined in December.
Remaining unchanged in December, the coincident index now stands at 118.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in both November and October. During the six-month span through December, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. February 13, 2007. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production — construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales and unemployment rate.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.