Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, March 17, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.6 percent, and the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in January.
- The leading index increased sharply in January, offsetting an equally large decline in December, and as a result, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to fluctuate around a 3.0-4.0 percent annual rate. However, this is still well below the peak growth rate of late 2003 and early 2004, and the strength among the components of the leading index has become somewhat less widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index decreased slightly in January, but it is still on a gradually rising trend. Real GDP increased at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2004, following 3.9 percent growth in the third quarter. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy should continue to grow in the near term, but probably more slowly than the 4.9 percent average rate in 2004.
Leading Indicators.Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in January. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are the (inverted) real exchange rate, net insufficient inventories, and the industrial production construction component*. US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and stock prices increased, while the (inverted) federal funds rate was unchanged in January.
With the increase of 0.6 percent in January, the leading index now stands at 147.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in December and decreased 0.2 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 2.3 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in January. The negative contributors were industrial production, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and the (inverted) unemployment rate. Retail sales increased in January.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in January, the coincident index now stands at 115.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in December and increased 0.3 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. March 16, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.