Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, September 17, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico was unchanged and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in July.
- The leading index was unchanged in July, but there were large upward revisions to the previous several months because of revisions to oil prices and the survey of inventories. Nonetheless, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to slow in recent months from its peak earlier this year.
- The coincident index increased slightly again in July, keeping it on a rising trend, while real GDP increased at almost a 5.0 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2004. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that the economy will continue growing, but at a more moderate rate for the remainder of 2004.
Leading Indicators.Five of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in July. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one—are net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component*, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil increased in July.
Holding steady in July, the leading index now stands at 144.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in June and decreased 0.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 3.7 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors were industrial production and the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries). The (inverted) unemployment rate declined while retail sales* remained unchanged in July.
With the 0.1 percent increase in July, the coincident index now stands at 115.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in June and increased 0.3 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.0 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. September 15, 2004. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.