Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, December 17, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in October.
- The leading index rebounded in October from a large decline in September, but most of this fluctuation reflected volatility in oil prices. October’s increase keeps the leading index on the flat to slightly rising trend from the most recent low at the end of 2002.
- Real GDP declined at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, but this follows strong growth in the second quarter (a 5.1 percent annual rate). The flat to slightly rising trend of the leading index is consistent with a sluggish, but still positive, average rate of economic growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories, and stock prices. The negative contributors to the index – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller – are the (inverted) real exchange rate and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The industrial production construction component* remained unchanged in October.
With the 0.4 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 106.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.3 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index – from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one – are the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production. The (inverted) unemployment rate and retail sales* declined in October.
With the 0.3 percent increase in October, the coincident index now stands at 113.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in September and decreased 0.3 percent again in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 16, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.