Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, December 17, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that Mexico's leading index decreased by 0.1 percent in October and the coincident index increased by 0.3 percent.
- This month’s decline in the leading index marks the sixth consecutive month that the index has been either flat or declining. Modest gains in stock prices and the rising cost of oil were more than offset by large inventory build-ups during the month of October.
- After a relatively strong rebound from the trough in November 2001, the leading index still appears to be on a downward trend since its most recent peak in March 2000.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.3 percent in October after three consecutive monthly declines. All of October’s gain resulted from strong gains in the labor market, with employment increasing sharply, and a corresponding decline in the unemployment rate.
Leading Indicators. Three of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in October. The negative contributors to the index – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are net insufficient inventories, the inverted real exchange rate and the inverted federal funds rate. The positive contributors to the index – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices and the construction component of industrial production*.
The leading index now stands at 105.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the leading index declined 0.5 percent in September and was unchanged in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.8 percent, with one of six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors to the index – from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and the unemployment rate . The negative contributors to the index – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller – are industrial production and retail sales.
The coincident index now stands at 113.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the coincident index decreased 0.4 percent in September and 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index was unchanged, with one component increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 P.M. (MEX) December 13, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component and CPI for Mexico and the U.S., which is used in calculating the real exchange rate. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.