Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2008|
Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 22, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico increased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in June.
- The rebound in the leading index since November 2001 continues despite some volatility in the last two months. The leading index continued to increase in June mainly because of decreasing inventories.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, continued to show strength by registering a 0.4 percent increase in June, which marks its fifth consecutive monthly increase. Moreover, its six-month diffusion index has reached a maximum value of 100.0, which shows that all components of this index have increased during the last six months.
Leading Indicators. Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - are net insufficient inventories and the construction component of industrial production*. Four of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors to the index - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, the inverted real exchange rate, U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the inverted federal funds rate.
The leading index now stands at 106.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the leading index decreased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.6 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.4 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are industrial production, the inverted unemployment rate, number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales*.
The coincident index now stands at 113.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in May and 0.4 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.2 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 2 P.M. (MEX) August 20, 2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates is retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.