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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

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Released: Monday, December 16, 2013

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Next month's release will incorporate benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Every January, data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased again in October, with building approvals, stock prices, and the yield spread making the largest positive contributions. With this month’s gain, the leading economic index increased 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate) between April and October 2013, about the same rate as for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in October. The coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) during the six-month period ending October 2013, down from the increase of 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators were balanced in the last six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2013, down from the 2.9 percent growth (annual rate) in the second quarter.
  • The LEI for Australia increased in October for the second consecutive month, continuing its slight upward trend which started earlier this year. Its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady throughout the first three quarters. Meanwhile, the strength in the CEI has been balanced, even though its six-month growth rate moderated from the first half of the year.  Taken together, the relatively steady and balanced growth in both the LEI and CEI suggests that the current rate of economic expansion is likely to continue through the first half of 2014.  

LEADING INDICATORS.  Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in October.  The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are building approvals, share prices, the yield spread, money supply*, the sales to inventories ratio*, and gross operating surplus*.  Rural goods exports declined in October.  

With the 0.5 percent increase in October, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 124.4 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the leading economic index increased 0.9 percent, and six of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in October.  The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in retail trade, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*.  Employment remained unchanged in October.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 122.8 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and remained unchanged in August.  During the six-month period through October, the coincident economic index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on December 13, 2013.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3.  Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income.  CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Global Indicators

StraightTalk®

Straight Talk November 2013

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2014: Time to realize the opportunities for growth

From the Chief Economist

Economy is thawing out

We view the winter slowdown in economic activity as a temporary pause, resulting from inclement weather experienced in many parts of the country.

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