Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, January 23, 2003
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for Australia increased 0.1 percent, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in November.
- While this month’s rise in the leading index was primarily due to an increase in the money supply, the index remains strong, increasing 9 out of the last 11 months. This strength continues to be broadly based as indicated by the six-month diffusion index, which shows at least half of the components rising on a monthly basis since January.
- The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, has shown even more strength, with this month’s increase largely due to a jump in the number of employed persons.
Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components in the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are money supply, sales to inventories ratio*, gross operating surplus*, share prices, and yield spread. Three of the eight components of the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index —in order from the largest negative contributor to smallest — are rural goods exports, building approvals*, and inverted “medium term” government bond yield. (For details see data availability section).
With the increase of 0.1 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 148.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in October and increased 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.6 percent, and five of the eight components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Four of the five components of the coincident index increased in November. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in the number of employed persons, retail trade, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*. The only component to decrease in November was the inverted unemployment rate. (For details, see data availability section).
With an increase of 0.3 percent in November, the coincident index now stands at 113.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with all five of the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on January 22, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals. (Money Supply M3 levels from April 2002 are derived from growth rates reported by RBA). Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income.
Due to Reserve Bank of Australia’s discontinuation of the 3-month Treasury Bill (for details see ‘For the Record” in June 2002 RBA bulletin). The Conference Board will use the Bank Accepted Bill 90 Days to calculate the yield spread from now on.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.