Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, July 11, 2013
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea declined 0.2 percent in May.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea fell again in May, with letter of credit arrivals making the largest negative contribution to the index. With this month’s decrease, the leading economic index fell by 1.1 percent (about a -2.1 percent annual rate) between November 2012 and May 2013, down from the increase of 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become slightly more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also fell in May. The coincident economic index declined by 0.7 percent (about a -1.4 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending May 2013, down from its increase of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the last six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2013, up from 1.1 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2012.
- The LEI for Korea decreased again in May, and has declined in five of the last six months. As a result, its six-month growth rate has been negative since April. Meanwhile, the CEI for Korea fell in May, following two small consecutive monthly gains, and its six-month change remains negative. Taken together, the recent weaknesses in both the LEI and CEI suggest that the rate of economic expansion is likely to slow in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in May. The positive contributors – from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were stock prices and real exports FOB. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were letter of credit arrivals, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, private construction orders, and value of machinery orders.
With the 0.5 percent decrease in May, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 120.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in April and increased 1.2 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading economic index decreased 1.1 percent, with three of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in May. The positive contributor was monthly cash earnings*. Total employment, the wholesale and retail sales component, and industrial production declined in May.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in May, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 116.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.4 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the coincident economic index decreased 0.7 percent, with one of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on July 10, 2013.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
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THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.