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Benchmark Revisions - September 2005

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Released: Tuesday, January 15, 2013

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This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea increased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea increased 0.6 percent in November.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November for the third consecutive month. Large gains in real exports and letter of credit arrivals more than offset negative contributions from private construction orders and stock prices. With this month’s uptick, the six-month growth rate in the leading economic index has turned positive — increasing by 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) between May and November 2012, an improvement from growth of 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in November. Despite the gain this month, the coincident economic index only grew by 0.4 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending November 2012, slower than the 1.5 percent increase (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2012, down from 1.1 percent growth (annual rate) in the second quarter.  
  • The LEI for Korea has rebounded in the last three months after declining in the previous two quarters, and as a result its six-month change has returned to positive territory. Meanwhile, The CEI for Korea also increased in November, but its six-month growth rate has slowed compared to earlier this year. The recent improvement in the LEI and its components suggests that the rate of economic growth may pick up slightly in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were real exports FOB, letter of credit arrivals, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, stock prices, and value of machinery orders. The (inverted) yield of government public bonds was unchanged in November.

With the 0.2 percent increase in November, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 121.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in October and increased 0.8 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading economic index increased 0.8 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in November. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the wholesale and retail sales component, industrial production, and monthly cash earnings*. Total employment declined in November.

With the 0.6 percent increase in November, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 117.2 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident economic index increased 0.4 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 12, 2013.  

* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings.  There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.

For more information, visit The Conference Board website:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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