Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, August 16, 2012
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea declined 1.0 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea declined 0.5 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea fell in June for the fourth consecutive month, with value of machinery orders making the largest negative contribution to the index. With the sharp decline in June, the six-month change in the leading economic index continued to slow, contracting by 0.8 percent (about a -1.5 percent annual rate) during the first half of 2012, about the same rate of decline as during the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been somewhat balanced in the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also decreased in June. Still, during the first half of this year the coincident economic index increased by 0.9 percent (about a 1.9 percent annual rate), about the same rate as during the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2012, down from 3.5 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Korea has been declining for four consecutive months, and as a result its six-month growth rate has been slowing since the beginning of this year. In fact, the rate returned to negative territory in June and is now declining at nearly the same pace as during the second half of 2011. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Korea also declined in June, and its six-month growth rate has slowed compared to earlier this year. Taken together, although the economy is still likely to continue expanding in the near term, the recent declines in the leading economic index suggest that the rate of expansion is likely to slow.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in June. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, and stock prices. Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were value of machinery orders, letter of credit arrivals, real exports FOB, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments.
With the 1.0 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 118.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.2 percent in May and declined 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading economic index decreased 0.8 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Only one of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in June. The positive contributor was monthly cash earnings*. Industrial production, total employment, and the wholesale and retail sales components declined in June.
With the 0.5 percent decrease in June, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 117.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the coincident economic index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on August 14, 2012.
* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.