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Benchmark Revisions - September 2005

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Released: Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Korea increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Korea increased 0.3 percent in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in May following a decline in April. A large positive contribution from real exports more than offset negative contributions from stock prices and the letter of credit arrivals. Despite the gain, the six-month change in the leading economic index continued to moderate somewhat — to 3.1 percent (about a 6.3 percent annual rate) in the period through May 2011. However, it is still higher than the growth of 1.5 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in May. Total employment, industrial production, and the wholesale and retail sales components advanced this month. The coincident economic index increased by 1.2 percent (about a 2.5 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through May 2011, above the same rate for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 5.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, up from the 2.0 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2010.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Korea reversed its April decline in May, and its six-month growth rate remains higher than in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, in May The Conference Board CEI for Korea also recovered its loss from April, and its six-month growth rate has remained fairly steady so far. The current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that, despite short-term volatility, economic expansion should continue in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in May. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were real exports FOB, value of machinery orders, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, private construction orders, and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments. Negative contributors were stock prices and letter of credit arrivals.

With the 0.4 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 122.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.7 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading economic index increased 3.1 percent, with six of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85.7 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in May. The positive contributors – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were total employment, industrial production, and the wholesale and retail sales component. Monthly cash earnings* remained unchanged in May.

With the 0.3 percent increase in May, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 115.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.8 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the coincident economic index increased 1.2 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on July 11, 2011.

* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

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