Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 14, 2007
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.2 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.5 percent in June.
- The leading index increased slightly in June following a sharp gain in May, and there were small upward revisions to the previous months. Stock prices and real exports continued to make large positive contributions to the index. Despite the second consecutive gain in June, the six-month growth rate of the leading index has been fluctuating around a 0.5 -1.0 percent rate in the last three months, well below the 2.0-4.0 percent rate in late 2006. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have become somewhat balanced in the last several months.
- The coincident index increased again in June, and the strength in the index continued to be widespread. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 5.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2007 (including a 7.0 percent rate in the second quarter), slightly up from a 4.4 percent average annual rate in the second half of 2006. Despite short-term volatility, the recent behavior in the leading index suggests that the economy is likely to grow at a somewhat moderate rate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were real exports FOB, stock prices, private construction orders, and letter of credit arrivals. Negative contributors — from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, and value of machinery orders.
With the 0.2 percent increase in June, the leading index now stands at 158.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in May and declined 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 0.9 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were industrial production, total employment, and monthly cash earnings. The wholesale and retail sales component declined in June.
With the 0.5 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 168.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and increased 1.0 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the coincident index increased 1.7 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) on August 13, 2007.
* The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board's estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.