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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, November 10, 2005

The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes for Korea declined 0.1 percent in September.

  • The leading index declined again in September, the second consecutive decline after increasing in the previous three months. With this month’s slight decrease, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed to a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate, down from the 4.0 to 5.0 percent rate in the second quarter of 2005 and the 7.0-8.0 percent rate through the first quarter of 2005. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators has become somewhat less widespread in recent months.
  • The coincident index also declined slightly in September, but it is still on a flat to moderately rising trend. At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 7.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2005, up from the 3.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of 2005. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate economic growth should continue in the near term.

Leading Indicators.Three of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, real exports FOB, and private construction orders. The (inverted) index of inventories to shipment, letter of credit arrivals, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds declined in September, while value of machinery orders remained unchanged.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in September, the leading index now stands at 146.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.4 percent in August and increased 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index increased 0.8 percent, with four of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were industrial production and monthly cash earnings. The wholesale and retail sales component and total employment declined in September.

With the 0.1 percent decline in September, the coincident index now stands at 159.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in both August and July. During the six-month span through September, the coincident index increased 1.7 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on November 9, 2005.

Notes: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board’s estimates is monthly cash earnings. There is no forecasted series in the leading index.