Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, August 9, 2004

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea decreased 0.1 percent and the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in June.

  • The leading index fell slightly in June following a large decline in May. The latest information is consistent with a further slowing in the growth rate of the leading index into a range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent (annual rate), down from 6.5 percent in the second half of 2003.
  • June's increase keeps the coincident index on a slightly rising trend, and real GDP growth has been fluctuating around an average rate of 7.0 percent (annualized) since the middle of 2003. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests there will be some moderation in the rate of economic growth in the near term.

Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in June. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were value of machinery orders, stock prices, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and monthly hours worked*. Authorized building permits, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds, real exports FOB, and letter of credit arrivals increased in June.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in June, the leading index now stands at 122.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.0 percent in May and increased 1.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 0.5 percent, with four of its eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to smallest – were total employment, the (inverted) unemployment rate, and wholesale and retail sales. Industrial production decreased in June.

With the 0.4 percent increase in June, the coincident index now stands at 112.0 (1990=100). This index decreased 0.3 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, with three of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on August 6, 2004.

Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked. There is no forecasted series in the coincident index.