Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 13, 2004
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea decreased 0.1 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in November.
- The leading index declined slightly in November, but was revised up for the last several months, as actual data for two components became available. As a result, the leading index remains on a moderate upward trend despite November’s decline. Export demand continues to be one of the strongest components of the leading index.
- Real GDP increased at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from small declines in the previous two quarters. The continued upward trend in the leading index is signaling moderate real GDP growth in the near term.
Leading Indicators.Three of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were real exports FOB, stock prices, and letter of credit arrivals*. Four of the eight components that make up the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, (inverted) yield of government public bonds, value of machinery orders, and authorized building permits. Monthly hours worked* remained unchanged in November.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in November, the leading index now stands at 119.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in October and decreased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 2.9 percent, with five of its eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors - from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – were the (inverted) unemployment rate and total employment. Wholesale and retail sales and industrial production decreased in November.
Holding steady in November, the coincident index now stands at 111.2 (1990=100). This index increased 0.3 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, with three of its four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on January 9, 2004.
Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked, and letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing. There is no forecasted series in the coincident index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.