Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, December 15, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.5 percent and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in October.
- The leading index increased by 0.5 percent in October and September’s previously reported 0.8 percent decline has been revised to a 0.3 percent decline, as actual data for several components became available. The strength in the leading index reflects export demand and other components related to the manufacturing sector.
- As mentioned last month, one component of the leading index -- building permits -- has become extremely volatile since early this year. Excluding this component, the leading index has been even stronger than reported in recent months, and the strength has become very widespread.
- Real GDP picked up to a 3.5 percent growth rate in the third quarter following small declines in the previous two quarters. The current widespread strength of the leading index is signaling that stronger real GDP growth should persist in the near term.
Leading Indicators. Six of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in October. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were value of machinery orders, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, real exports*, stock prices, letter of credit arrivals*, and monthly hours worked*. Authorized building permits and (inverted) yield of government public bonds decreased in October.
With the 0.5 percent increase in October, the leading index now stands at 118.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 2.2 percent, with six of its eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in October. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were wholesale and retail sales, total employment, and industrial production. The (inverted) unemployment rate remained unchanged in October.
With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, the coincident index now stands at 111.2 (1990=100). This index decreased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the coincident index remained unchanged, with three of its four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on December 11, 2003.
Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked, letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing, and real exports FOB. There is no forecasted series in the coincident index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.