Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Thursday, November 13, 2003
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea decreased 0.8 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent in September.
- The leading index declined by 0.8% in September, and the increases previously reported for July and August were revised downward as actual data for several components became available. As a result, excluding the large positive effect of rising stock prices, the leading index has now shown little increase over the last three to six months.
- At the same time, September's decline was not widespread, but instead was concentrated in building permits (which has become an extremely volatile component in recent months). The growth rate of the leading index has slowed so far this year, although it is still on the rising trend from the most recent cyclical low in 2001.
- The leading index was consistent with some weakening of real GDP in the first half of 2003, but the leading index has not been weak enough to signal a continuation of declining economic activity in the second half of the year.
Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, (inverted) yield of government public bonds, stock prices, and real exports*. Two components in the leading index decreased in September. The negative contributors – from the larger negative contributor to the smaller – were authorized building permits and letter of credit arrivals*. Monthly hours worked* and value of machinery orders remained unchanged in September.
With the 0.8 percent decrease in September, the leading index now stands at 117.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.4 percent, with three of its eight components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 37.5 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Only one of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributor to the index was industrial production. Three components that make up the coincident index decreased in September. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were the (inverted) unemployment rate, total employment, and wholesale and retail sales.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in September, the coincident index now stands at 110.9 (1990=100). This index increased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the coincident index decreased 0.5 percent, with two of its components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. (ET) on November 12, 2003.
Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are monthly hours worked, letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing, and real exports FOB. There is no forecasted series in the coincident index.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.