Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, January 14, 2003

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.3 percent and the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in November.

  • The leading index for Korea increased by 0.3 percent in November, after surging 1.1 percent in October. Strength in the financial sector was the primary reason for the gain in November. Increases in the letter of credit arrivals and hours worked also positively contributed to the leading index. The increase in stock prices in November comes after six consecutive monthly declines for this component of the leading index.
  • The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, decreased modestly in November. Mild weakness in industrial production and a drop in employment were the reasons for November’s decline. The coincident index continues to stagnate and is strongly indicative of the current economic situation in Korea.

Leading Indicators. Four of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – are stock prices, letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing, the inverted yield of government public bonds and monthly hours worked. The negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – are the inverted index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing*, authorized building permits, real exports and the value of machinery orders in manufacturing.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in November, the leading index now stands at 116.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.1 percent in October and decreased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the index increased 1.0 percent, and four of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Coincident Index. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index - from the larger negative contributor to the smaller- are industrial production and total employment. The inverted unemployment rate was unchanged in November, while the only positive contributor to the index was wholesale and retail sales.

With the decrease of 0.1 percent in November, the coincident index stands at 111.4 (1990=100). This index remained unchanged in October and September.During the six-month span through November, the coincident index declined 0.2 percent, with one of four of its components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) on January 11, 2002.

Notes: The series in the leading index based on The Conference Board’s estimates are