Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, July 12, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.7 percent and the coincident index remained unchanged in May.
- The leading index increased sharply in May buoyed by strong growth in manufacturing and exports. The continuing strength in these sectors over the past year shows prospects for growth in the Korean economy.
- Although the coincident index remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, it is ten percent above the recession trough of August 1998.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing, inverted index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing, real exports, inverted yield of government public bonds, and monthly hours worked*. The remaining three components decreased in May. The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, value of machinery orders in manufacturing, and authorized building permits*.
With the increase of 0.7 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 114.1 (1990=100). This index decreased 0.4 percent in April and increased 1.8 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 3.2 percent, and five of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in May. The positive contributors are the index of wholesale and retail sales and the industrial production index, in that order. The other two components, the inverted unemployment rate and total employment, decreased in May.
Remaining unchanged in May, the coincident index now stands at 111.6 (1990=100). This index remained unchanged in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.4 percent, and all four of its components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (EST) on July 8, 2002.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that is based on The Conference Board estimates is monthly hours worked and authorized building permits.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.