Global Business Cycle Indicators
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Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, September 13, 2002
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea increased 0.4 percent and the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in July.
- The strength in the leading index during July was a result of increasing exports, lower interest rates and a decline in inventory levels. With this increase in July, the leading index continued to improve, and is now 4.8 percent above its most recent low, which occurred in April 2001.
- The coincident index, a measure of current conditions, increased modestly in July, continuing the upward trend established in March 2001. The increase in this index was primarily a result of increasing demand and industrial activity, coupled with declining unemployment.
Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components that make up the leading index increased in May. The negative contributors - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are inverted index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing, real exports, inverted yield of government public bonds, monthly hours worked*, and letter of credit arrivals in manufacturing.
The negative contributors - from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - are value of machinery orders in manufacturing, stock prices, and authorized building permits.
With the increase of 0.4 percent in July, the leading index now stands at 114.3 (1990=100). This index decreased 1.0 percent in June and increased 1.6 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.7 percent, and seven of the eight components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in July. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are wholesale and retail sales, industrial production and the inverted unemployment rate. The only negative contributor to the index during July was total employment.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, the coincident index now stands at 111.6 (1990=100). This index decreased 0.2 percent in June and was unchanged in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 0.5 percent, with three of four of its components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (EST) on September 10, 2002.
*Notes: The series in the leading index that is based on The Conference Board's estimates is monthly hours worked.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.