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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Japan

Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, December 10, 2015

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Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will be changed to 10:30 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan decreased 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan declined slightly in October, fueled by large negative contributions from business failures (inverted) and dwelling units started. As a result of four consecutive declines, the leading economic index contracted by 0.9 percent (about a −1.7 percent annual rate) from April to October 2015, a reversal from its growth of 0.5 percent (about a 1.0 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the weaknesses and strengths among its underlying components remain balanced.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased in October, with industrial production and sales driving the gain. The six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index rose by 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate), an improvement from its marginal growth of 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Nevertheless, the weaknesses and strengths among the coincident indicators remain balanced. At the same time, real GDP expanded at a 1.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2015, after contracting by 0.5 percent in the second quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Japan has declined four months in a row and its six-month growth rate has fallen deeper into negative territory. The latest weakness in the LEI suggests that the economic recovery will likely remain modest going into the new year.

 

LEADING INDICATORS.  Six of the ten components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in October. The positive contributors to the index – in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – include stock prices, real money supply, new orders for machinery and construction, the six month growth rate of labor productivity*, the index of overtime worked, and the interest rate spread. The negative contributors – in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – include (inverted) business failures, dwelling units started, the Tankan business conditions survey, and real operating profits*.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board LEI for Japan now stands at 102.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.7 percent in September and decreased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 0.9 percent, and five of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

 

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in October. The positive contributors to the index were industrial production and the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales* component. Wage and salary income and the number of employed persons declined in October.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Japan now stands at 98.7 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in September and decreased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.7 percent, and two of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

 

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET December 9, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates are the six-month growth rate of labor productivity and real operating profits. The series in The Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Straight Talk March 2020

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Only A Taste of What’s to Come

The March jobs report shows a staggering loss of 701,000 jobs, which is one of the biggest monthly losses in history. Unfortunately, this drop reflects just a fraction of the deterioration in labor market conditions during that month.

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