Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, August 23, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in June.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in June. With the exception of stock prices, the remaining components rose this month, led by a large positive contribution from new orders in investment goods industries. In the six-month period ending June 2011, the leading economic index increased 4.8 percent (about a 9.8 percent annual rate), the same as the growth of 4.7 percent (about a 9.6 percent annual rate) in the last half of 2010. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic conditions, increased as well in June, led by a large gain in retail trade. Between December 2010 and June 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.3 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate), above the growth of 0.8 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate) between June and December 2010. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread, with all four components advancing in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, after increasing at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in June, amid widespread strengths among its components. The index has been increasing for over two years now, though its six-month growth rate has stayed within a narrow range in 2011. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased this month, but its six-month growth rate has also remained relatively stable. Taken together, the recent stable growth of the composite indexes suggests that the expansion in economic activity which began in the third quarter of 2009 should continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were new orders in investment goods industries, the interest rate spread, new residential construction orders*, consumer confidence, inventory change*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Stock prices declined in June.
With the 0.8 percent increase in June, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 111.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in May and increased 0.9 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the index increased 4.8 percent, with five of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in June. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were retail trade and employed persons. Manufacturing sales and industrial production declined in June.
With the 0.3 percent increase in June, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 106.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month period through June, the index increased 1.3 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
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