Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, June 21, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in April.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April, with large positive contributions from the yield spread, new orders for residential construction, and stock prices. Index levels were revised upwards between December 2010 and March 2011 due to revisions in consumer confidence and residential construction orders; and as first quarter data for gross enterprises and properties income became available. In the six-month period ending April 2011, the leading economic index increased 4.7 percent (about a 9.5 percent annual rate), faster than the increase of 3.6 percent (about a 7.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged for the second consecutive month in April. Between October 2010 and April 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate), in line with the growth rate that prevailed for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, following an increase of 1.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued to increase in April, and its six-month growth rate has remained steady amid widespread strengths among its components. The index has been increasing for over two years now, and is back to the level reached during the last peak in July 2007. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany remained unchanged this month, but its six-month growth rate has remained relatively stable as well. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new residential construction orders*, stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, gross enterprises and properties income*, and inventory change*. Consumer confidence declined in April.
With the 0.8 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 110.1 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in March and increased 0.9 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 4.7 percent, with six of the seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 92.9 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS.Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors were employed persons and retail trade. Industrial production and manufacturing sales declined in April.
After remaining unchanged in April, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 105.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in March and increased 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the index increased 1.1 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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