Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, May 24, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany remained unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent in March.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany remained flat in March. This is the first time since early 2009 that the index did not increase. The yield spread and new residential construction orders contributed positively to the index this month, while stock prices declined sharply. Between September 2010 and March 2011, the leading economic index increased 3.3 percent (a 6.6 percent annual rate), below the 5.3 percent rate of growth (an 11.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all seven components advancing during the last six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined slightly in March. Retail trade made a very large negative contribution this month, offsetting the gains in the remaining components. In the six-month period ending March 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent (a 2.9 percent annual rate), in line with the growth rate during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread recently. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, up from growth of 1.5 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2010.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany remained flat in March, and its six-month growth rate has slowed to the lowest rate since mid-2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany decreased slightly this month, although its six-month growth rate has remained stable lately. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue to expand, but perhaps at a less brisk pace in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were the yield spread, new residential construction orders*, and inventory change*. The negative contributors — in order from largest to smallest — were stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Consumer confidence remained unchanged in March.
After remaining unchanged in March, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.7 percent in February and increased 0.6 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the index increased 3.3 percent, with all seven components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were employed persons, industrial production, and manufacturing sales. Retail trade declined in March.
With the 0.1 percent decrease in March, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 105.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in February and increased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the index increased 1.4 percent, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
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