Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in February.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased again in February. The yield spread continued to make a strong positive contribution to the index this month, in addition to large positive contributions from new residential construction orders and stock prices. Between August 2010 and February 2011, the leading index increased 4.1 percent (an 8.3 percent annual rate), below the growth of 6.6 percent (a 13.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have been very widespread, with all components advancing during the past six months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, also rose in February. In the six-month period ending February 2011, the coincident economic index increased 1.2 percent (a 2.5 percent annual rate), below the growth of 2.0 percent (a 3.9 percent annual rate) in the six months through August 2010. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components increasing in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, following growth of 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
- The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rising trend for almost two years now, with its six-month growth rate fairly stable in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has also been on an increasing path, and its six-month growth rate has picked up lately. This index has now exceeded its most recent peak in February 2008. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should expand moderately in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were new residential construction orders, the yield spread, stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, and inventory change*. Consumer confidence declined, while gross enterprises and properties income* remained unchanged in February.
With the 0.7 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for Germany now stands at 107.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.6 percent in January and increased 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February 2011, the index increased 4.1 percent, with all seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in February. The positive contributors — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— were industrial production, manufacturing sales, and employed persons. Retail trade declined in February.
With the 0.3 percent increase in February, The Conference Board CEI for Germany now stands at 105.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and increased 0.3 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the index increased 1.2 percent, with all four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
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