Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Wednesday, January 25, 2006

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.5 percent, and the coincident index remained unchanged in November.

  • The leading index increased sharply in November, the eighth consecutive gain, and the strength among the leading indicators continued to be widespread. With November’s increase, the leading index has been growing at a 3.0 - 3.5 percent annual rate in recent months, up from essentially no growth at the beginning of 2005.
  • Despite no change in November, the coincident index is still on an upward trend which started to strengthen in early 2005 but has moderated slightly in recent months. November's increase in the industrial production component of the coincident index was offset by a similar decrease in the retail sales component, and the strengths and weaknesses among the coincident indicators were somewhat balanced in November.
  • At the same time, real GDP growth picked up to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, from a 1.7 percent average rate in the first half of 2005 and a 0.5 percent average rate over the previous four quarters. The continued widespread growth in the leading index suggests that the recent pick up in economic activity is likely to persist in the near term.

Leading Indicators. Five of the eight components in the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are new orders in investment goods industries, the growth rate of CPI for services, stock prices, the yield spread, and the inventory change series*. Consumer confidence, new residential construction orders*, and gross enterprises and properties income* declined in November.

With the 0.5 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 105.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.7 percent, with six of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the coincident index were industrial production, employed persons*, and manufacturing sales. Retail trade declined in November.

Holding steady in November, the coincident index now stands at 104.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Data Availability. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET January 23, 2006.


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