Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - March 2007|
Press Release Archive
Released: Friday, January 21, 2005
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany increased 0.1 percent, while the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent in November.
- The leading index increased slightly in November following no change in October. As a result, the growth rate of the leading index has continued to improve, from slight declines in early 2004 to about a 2.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate in recent months, but this is still well below the 4.0 to 5.0 percent growth rate in the second half of 2003. The strength in the leading index has also become somewhat more widespread in recent months.
- The coincident index fell slightly in November, but it continues to be on an essentially flat trend in recent months. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 0.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down from a 1.7 percent average rate in the first half of 2004. The stronger growth in the leading index in recent months suggests that economic growth should pick up slightly in the near term from the third quarter’s sluggish pace.
Leading Indicators.Four of the eight components in the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the leading index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, the growth rate of CPI for services, consumer confidence, and the inventory change series*. Gross enterprises and properties income*, the yield spread, new orders in investment goods industries, and new residential construction orders* declined in November.
With the 0.1 percent increase in November, the leading index now stands at 103.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.5 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.6 percent, with six of the eight components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the coincident index were manufacturing sales and employed persons*. Industrial production and retail trade declined in November.
With the 0.1 percent decline in November, the coincident index now stands at 103.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in both October and September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in this release are those available “as of” 10:00 A.M. ET January 20, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates include employed persons.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.