Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Monday, August 21, 2006
The Conference Board reports today that the leading index for France declined 0.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in June.
- The leading index decreased slightly in June, the second decline in six months. In June, yield spread and new unemployment claims (inverted) were the only positive contributors, but they were offset by large negative contributions from stock prices and production expectations. Despite June's decrease, the leading index grew at a 1.9 percent rate from December to June (about a 3.9 percent annual rate), about the same as the average rate in the first half of the year. In addition, from December to June, the strengths among the leading indicators have been more widespread than weaknesses.
- The coincident index continued to increase in June. Despite some short term volatility, this index of current economic activity has been on a slightly rising trend since mid-2003. The strengths among the coincident indicators have also been widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP increased at about a 4.5 to 5.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter (advance estimates), following a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. The recent behavior of the leading index suggests that moderate to strong economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components of the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are the yield spread and the inverted new unemployment claims. The negative contributors to the index- beginning with the largest negative contributor- are the stock price index, production expectations, the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*, and building permits (residential). Industrial new orders remained unchanged in June.
With the decrease of 0.2 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 127.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in May and increased 1.0 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 1.9 percent, and five of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components of the coincident index increased in June. The positive contributors to the index- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- were personal consumption, wage and salaries*, and employment*. Industrial production remained unchanged in June.
With the increase of 0.1 percent in June, the coincident index now stands at 119.9 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in May and remained unchanged in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with all of the four series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
Please visit the web site of our research associate in France: http://www.rexecode.fr/index.jsv
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on August 17, 2006. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are number of employees and wage and salaries.
With the May 2006 release the FRANCE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES underwent a benchmark revision. For more information on these benchmark revisions please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/update.cfm?cid=3.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.