Global Business Cycle Indicators
|Benchmark Revisions - May 2006|
Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, January 14, 2003
The Conference Board reports today that both the leading index and the coincident index for France remained unchanged in November.
- The leading index held steady for the second consecutive month in November. This marks the sixth consecutive month that the index has been either flat or declining.
- Increases in the stock market and industrial new orders for the first time in six months were offset by a sharp rise in new unemployment claims, weaker consumer confidence, and a drop in personal consumption of manufactured goods.
- The coincident index also held steady in November, continuing its sluggish growth pattern that began in early 2001.
Leading Indicators. Five of the ten components of the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest— are the stock price index, industrial new orders, change in stocks*, building permits (residential), and the inverted bond yield. Four of the ten components of the leading index decreased in November. The negative contributors to the index —in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest—are inverted new unemployment claims, the consumer confidence index (opinion balance), personal consumption of manufacturing goods, and the ratio of the deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*. The yield spread remained unchanged in November. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
Holding steady in November, the leading index now stands at 102.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and decreased 0.3 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.3 percent, and three of the ten components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 30 percent).
Coincident Indicators. Three of the four components of the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index —in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are paid employment*, real imports* and industrial production*. Retail sales decreased in November. (For details, see data availability section and tables.)
Holding steady in November, the coincident index now stands at 114.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with two of the four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on January 10, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.
*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are change in stocks and ratio deflator of manufacturing value added to unit labor cost in manufacturing. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production, real imports, and paid employment.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.