Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.3 percent in March, after increasing 0.4 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 110.2 (2004=100).

“The Leading Economic Index for the U.K. continued to increase in March, suggesting that economic growth is likely to remain strong in the months ahead,” says Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “Even though uncertainty about growth prospects in the Euro Area is mounting —alongside tensions in Ukraine — the outlook for the U.K. continues to be positive, with only order book volume and stocks declining.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in March, after increasing 0.4 percent in both February and January. The index now stands at 106.7 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

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