Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, April 11, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in February, after increasing 0.6 percent in January and remaining unchanged in December. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 109.9 (2004=100).

“The U.K. LEI continued to increase in February, with most components contributing positively,” said Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “However, order book volume declined and stock prices were flat. The index’s six-month growth rate suggests that the economy will continue to recover, but further acceleration in the months ahead seems unlikely.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in February, after decreasing 0.1 percent in January and increasing 0.3 percent in December. The index now stands at 106.0 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S..

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

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About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.



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